Arsenal or Manchester City; who will win the 2023 Premier League. by Kennedy
This season’s battle for the premiership title has been reduced to a two-horse race, pitting the defending champions, Manchester city against the current league leaders Arsenal.
A clear picture of who is likely to emerge victorious will be seen when the two sides clash at the Etihad stadium towards the end of April.
Before that happens however, an objective analysis and comparison of these two teams will do no harm.
Elo rating comparison of the Gunners and the Cityzens
Elo is a rating algorithm that is used to measure and rank soccer teams to indicate their strength and skill set based on their performance on the football pitch.
This system is named after an American Physics professor called Arpad Elo who invented it. Using this algorithm, soccer teams are assigned a numerical figure with 4 digits and a rank or a position. The higher the figure the stronger the team is and therefore the team is accordingly given a higher ranking.
This system is also used to rank Chess players. In 2023, Man City is the highest ranked team in England with a score of 2064 followed by Arsenal with a rating of 1958.
Using this criterion to predict the probable winner of the current season’s premier league, then the Cityzens are the overwhelming favourites to comfortably lift the trophy.
Managerial pedigree
Pep Guardiola’s managerial acumen is beyond reproach. His man management ability, training methodology, tactical prowess and game management skills are exceptional.
Guardiola has won league titles in Spain with Barcelona, in Germany with Bayern Munich and in England with Manchester City. As of April 2023, Pep has bagged over 30 major trophies from different competitive leagues in Europe.
Moreover, several of Guardiola’s former players or assistants have ventured into football management underlining Guardiola’s mentorship capabilities. They include Barcelona’s current manager Xavi Hernandez, Burnley’s Vincent Kompany and Mikel Arteta the Gunner’s boss.
Arteta on the other hand is without any shadow of doubt an upcoming and capable young manager. Guardiola gave him his first coaching job as his assistant at Manchester city. Mikel held this job for over three years and sharpened his skills before joining the Gunners as their manager.
As the Arsenal manager, Arteta has won one FA cup and a charity shield trophy.
If you compare the two managers’ skillset with a view of predicting who is likely to bag this year’s trophy, then Guardiola’s Manchester City is once again a clear favourite.
Recent experience of winning the English premier league.
They say that History repeats itself. Manchester City is the current premier league defending champion. The Cityzens have also won this trophy on five different occasions since the 2011-2012 season.
In comparison, Arsenal last won the premiership almost twenty years ago in 2004.
The Cityzens are the odds-on favourites to bag the premiership title if recent History is anything to go by.
The run in
Manchester City in addition to the English premier league is also competing in the UEFA champions league. Assuming that Guardiola’s men go all the way to the final, it means that the Cityzens have 4 more UEFA games to play. These are the quarter-final return match against Bayern Munich, two semi-final matches and the final game.
They are also in the FA Cup semis against Sheff Utd, so there are another 2 potential games as well.
Manchester city also has 8 premier league matches pending bringing the total number of remaining games to 14.
Arsenal on the other hand has just 7 premier league games left to play.
Using this criterion, Arsenal has the advantage given the Cityzens have 7 more tough games to play than the Gunners.
On balance therefore, Arsenal appears to be the underdog compared to Manchester City as the EPL enters the home stretch.
However, modern football is unpredictable and either of these two teams can win the premier league this year.
Remember in 2016 Leicester City under Claudio Ranieri overcame heavy odds to win this coveted trophy.
It is not over until it is over, and time will tell whether History will repeat itself in favour of the Cityzens or whether the Gunner’s long wait for premiership glory will end this year.
Kennedy Mwanzia
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It will be tough. The players need to rest more. They should be calm and not let the 2 draws play in their mind in the title run in. Man city won’t win all their 8 matches. They are likely to draw away to Brighton and also Brendford. We have to be ruthless at the etihad stadium. Score 2 early goals. And go defensive. Maybe we can get a draw. Our game against new castle will be a big test. It is also an away game. We must be clinical in that game. Arteta has to drop Saka at some point and bring him in as a substitute. He looks tired.
I believe Arsenal will win the league. We will have a minimum of 92 points at the end of the season.
Are you watching what city is doing to Bayern right now? What makes you think they won’t batter Brighton and Brendford this time around. Unlike us city is getting stronger by the day.
I think before we won 2-0 at Anfield in 1989 to beat Liverpool to the League title, we lost at home to Derby and then drew with Wimbledon and no one gave us a chance. The rest is history.
We Still have 7 matches to go. We will be 7 points ahead when we beat Southampton. If we win all 7 matches which is unlikely but possible, we will win the PL 🏆
The City match away will be incredibly tough indeed but hopefully we will have Saliba for that match. We will also have Jesus, Martinelli, Saka, Odergaard so we will have plenty of fire power and a solid defense so anything is possible
Even if we are able to win or pull out a draw, it’s still possible for City to drop points too. Brentford will be at home against City. I think it’s possible they could drop points there.
Regardless we can’t get anymore results like the last 2 matches. We need to try our best to win EVERY match remaining. One match at a time.
Sorry but City is currently playing the best football in the world at the moment and we seem to have gone off the boil.
On top of that we play them at the Ethiad, so out chances of anything other than a loss is basically 0.
Exactly. We had our chance to rattle city, put utds ‘recovery’ to bed earlier in the season, and continue liverpools bad form – and blew it each time. To challenge you need to discomfort your opponents and keep them that way. City and Haaland have clicked, whereas Arsenal have shown the fragile confidence issues of the last six or seven years is still a problem. It would be great to still be in it after the next few games, but realistically it’s a harder ask for us than Peps boys.
Please look at my comment above 🔝as no one can truly predict the future. We all thought then what you think!
Let’s just face the reality guys: we have blown our chance!
Not that I’m terribly disappointed. As a matter of fact, I think we have basically exceeded expectations. Finishing second (I hope it doesn’t end worse) is great because that means back in the CL with its glamour and wealth.
My real disappointment was in exiting the Europa the way we did. Second place in the PL with a Europa League would have been so so sweet.
Can’t wait now for this season to get done and let’s look forward to next.
Quality post. A very good read.
For me, the bottom line is, irrespective of the final outcome, this club has overachieved this season.
It would be a fantastic end of a “david and goliath” story if we lift the trophy over the Citizens.
It’s comforting knowing we’re on the right trajectory for the future.
No analysis for top 6 in England can really be genuinely objective. Arsenal has only one set-back when measured with city: they get wins and defeats before setting foot on the pitch depending on the team they are meeting. They struggle against smaller teams where City just crushes them because they underrate those teams. They have a complex when playing with City. if they are reallt serious, they can come away from the Ettihad with a draw. Then they will need about 5 more wins to top the league. City will drop points for sure.
Manchester city played a 1:1 draw at the etihad against Everton. Man city also lost to brendford at home. We should focus on our results. 7 games remaining. Win 6 and draw 1 and we are the champions
There are 3 different outcomes for a football club. One according to their aim and expectation, one according to the prediction of the football pundits or fans and the other is the hard reality. I think Arsenal had successfully reached the first 2 outcomes. Unfortunately, they got hit hard by the cold reality that is EPL. There’s no embarrassment from that either. The team overachieved this season, with young manager and young players. They will be better next season. And misery is contagious, so don’t listen to rival fans who supports other underachieving teams or own fans who never really experienced the process of ‘The Invincibles’.
I am pretty sure before this seasonall the predictions, human, statistics, artificial intelligence and what have you, would have given Arsenal absolutely no chance of being where we are.
City are also favourites to win the title in my mind, but only just.
But our season so far is really one long positive surprise, and maybe the end will be as well.
I wish Arteta could use a 352 formation in city game
Ramsdale
Kiwior Magalhaes White
Zinchenko Xhaka Partey Odegaard Saka
Martineli Jesus
This will also allow Saka,Xhaka and Odegaard to overload the midfield and offer support to Martineli and Jesus in attack Zinchenko and Partey to anchor and cover for other midfielders while they attack the opponent as well helping the back line in case of a counter attack from city.and early in the second bring in Trossard, Tierney and Jorginho and sup Xhaka, Saka and Odegaard and Arsenal will surely come with a good result at the Man city.
And bring Emile Smith Rowe or Nelson and Holding later for Zinchenko,Martineli or Jesus