Analysis of last season’s referees decisions that prove there is no conspiracy against Arsenal

Unfortunately, it’s the second year I have had to write this ….

There are some Gooners who generally think that there is a conspiracy against Arsenal, that the FA send out officials to have an agenda to hurt us.

They never explain what that motive is.

What makes the Gunners so special and unique that the governing body of the sport would care about us so much they choose to sabotage us?

Some of my peers (realising how absurd the accusation is) have tried to defend them, claiming they don’t mean what the actual word intends.

Language though is powerful and if we have zero evidence, to say otherwise is only fair, we assume a person knows what they are saying.

My own stance is that officiating is poor in the UK but that’s for everyone.

Sometimes decisions cost us points, other times we have benefitted.

Like 12 months ago let’s dissect the season and see how hard done by us was in reality.

Remember the accusation is that referees are part of a conspiracy set up by the FA who have an agenda.

So, if there is one example of us getting awarded a penalty or the opposition a red card this would contradict everything ……

 August 23

Can’t really argue with Tomiyasu being sent off at Selhurst Park. Already on a yellow, the defender makes the choice to sacrifice himself on the halfway line to stop a Crystal Palace counterattack.

We are also awarded a penalty in that game and at home to Fulham who have to play the last 10 mins down to 10 men.

If an official is being ordered to sabotage us does this happen?

Maybe this is the one person who felt sorry for us so went rogue?

 September 23

If VAR hadn’t been invented, we would have lost to Man United. It’s actually United fans who go down the Conspiracy route, accusing Stockley Park of not correctly drawing the lines that proved Garnacha is just offside.

The big screen displays the decision that after a VAR (Video Assistant Referee) review a goal from Manchester United’s Argentinian midfielder #49 Alejandro Garnacho is disallowed for offside during the English Premier League football match between Arsenal and Manchester United at the Emirates Stadium in London on September 3, 2023. (Photo by GLYN KIRK/AFP via Getty Images)

In the North London Derby, VAR takes ages to judge if Romero could have avoided handling the ball, the official is ordered to look at the monitor and despite all these people being part of an agenda the award is …. Penalty to Arsenal.

2 more spots kicks on the South coast makes it 5 penalties in our first 7 fixtures.

So, if there is an ulterior motive, these men and women are not at it.

October 23

The 6th penalty of the campaign at home to Sheffield United. None yet to go against us

November 23

Arteta famously calls Newcastle’s winning a disgrace numerous times, feeling there were three reasons why the goals should have been disallowed.

I maintain his reaction wasn’t genuine and an effort to distract from the fact he was struggling to keep pace with Man City.

While contentious, it wasn’t as controversial as our manager made out, with some pundits saying they understood why it was given.

It didn’t warrant the club releasing a statement asking for standards to urgently improve, like that was going to make any difference.

 December 23

We think we have momentarily equalized at Villa Park, but VAR confirms the officials first thought that Havertz had handled the ball, the letter of the law saying that the goal should be disallowed accident or not.

That evens itself out at Anfield where many pundits feel Odegaard handles the ball, but no spot kick is given (quite blatant)

Again, if there was a conspiracy surely this would be given?

 January 24

Both game’s uneventful

February 24

Nothing this month to suggest a conspiracy theory. In fact, Liverpool gets a red card at the Emirates and one of our 5 goals at Burnley is a penalty

March 24

Nothing to suggest a conspiracy theory this month including at the Etihad.

 April 24

Arsenal knows at this point they have to keep on winning to keep the destiny of the title race in their own hands.

It’s why I don’t accept an agenda to stop us being Champions as that has nothing to do with our failure to covert chances against Aston Villa before going missing in the second half.

If anything, the big decisions go our way, as we are awarded a penalty at Brighton, while in the NLD Spurs feel they should have had a spot kick before we race away and score while Ben White gets away with some dark arts against their keeper

May 24

Perhaps the two biggest decisions that show Arsenal benefit, as much are hurt by, officiating come in the final month of the season.

Semenyo had a goal ruled out for Bournemouth when Solanke was judged to have fouled Raya, but it was simply a mistake from our keeper.

Then on the final day, Kai Havertz scored in the 89 th min despite Jesus using his hand in the buildup.

On another day that moment could have decided the title, so if there was a conspiracy surely that goal gets disallowed?

What do you think peeps?

Based on the evidence we had more penalties awarded for than against, and questionable decisions went both ways?

Poor officiating but zero agenda

Dan


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  1. Not really an ‘analysis’ that ‘proves’ anything other than your own opinions. I’m not one to say we have an agenda against us but at the same time it’s the odd decisions that we seem to come off worse on than most, those ambiguous or untouched rules where it’s left us confused and irritated as we seem to get the worst of those; Rice’s recent red card, Martinelli double yellow, Newcastle goal that had three justifiable claims for a foul in the build up, etc. All odd and ultimately highly costly. And while there are pundits that agree, there are always those that don’t too, it’s never 100% on one side or the other. Why? Because newspapers, tv companies etc push for controversial debates, so they either bring in people with a bias or push such pundits to strain their side of the case so it becomes polarising.
    People are allowed to be annoyed by decisions, especially in the heat of the moment, all fans of all clubs are guilty of that. If you’re looking for someone to blame or educate, look towards the media more than anything. Officiating in this country has never been great but it’s most likely due to poor training and stubborn egos.

  2. Great article – it’s so important to highlight the many things that went in our favour last season. Those are what people forget when things go against them and lead to this victim/conspiracy mentality.
    It’s also important to highlight when things genuinely did go against us for a balanced analysis, which you did here imo. It was actually a season where a lot went in our favour.
    One thing I’d say about the Newcastle incident is that I do think the goal should have been disallowed for a foul by joelinton, but it was overshadowed by the two other areas of controversy (ball out of play and offside – neither of which should have been so controversial). I think even the VAR refs didn’t look at it very closely because the ball out of play question was so unusual and challenging for them to analyse.

  3. God knows how we got away with the two handbells, Odegaard v Villa & Jesus in the final game. I still think that there’s some northern refs that hate southern teams just because they’re not northern, and it sometimes plays out.
    I know that PGMOL the Premier League and FA are not anti arsenal and most journalists seem to like us, so I’d say we get decent crack.

    1. btw, it’s too bad you didn’t start with the 3 seasons before those last two – night and day difference in number of cards and relative to other teams in the league – does any of it prove anything conclusively, of course not.

    2. It’s not so much about a conspiracy for me. But if PGMOL refs are invited and permitted to referee games in the UAE for respectable amounts of cash, it does raise some questions. Especially since these invitations are entirely in the gift of the owner of a certain four in a row club. Reported in the Independent and NY Times amongst others.

  4. Dan, this article proves nothing whatsoever, as it’s only your opinion.
    I wonder why you haven’t taken the same amount of time to discuss the decisions that DIDN’T go our way?

    Referees are paid to make decisions based on the rule book that is used, in most cases, throughout the world.
    They are rules that are there to guide the official through the game.
    Some rules, like the handball one, or the offside rule, need revisiting of course, but they are there and should be adhered to.
    It is that simple and to aid them further, new technology has been introduced.
    Yet still the referees in the PL are making mistakes, simple mistakes, that cause controversy at nearly every match.
    Now, the simple answer to this, is to have referees come out at the end of the game and explain to us, the paying public, why they made such unfathomable decisions, such as the Rice sending off.
    We might not agree with their interpretation of the rules, but at least we would know.
    So why doesn’t this happen?
    Managers and players are expected to face the media minutes after a game, when tensions are high, but the PGMOL have refused to allow their members to do the same.
    They do not want to be scrutinised and, as in the Rice incident again, once again issue a bland statement that Rice kicked the ball away so a yellow card was correctly shown.
    What about the three incorrect decisions that went before that – we’ll never know, because they’ve closed ranks yet again.
    They police themselves, are answerable to no one else and never called to account.
    Are we also to believe that hardly any competent referees exist in the southern part of the country?
    Why would someone put a referee from the centre of Manchester, in charge of a game where it’s going to be seen as a biased referee?
    Why leave yourself open to such criticism?
    Because they don’t care!!

    The very fact that they police themselves, will not explain decisions, have members who do not represent the whole of England and continue to treat the fanbase with contempt, makes them a corrupt organisation from top to bottom… bottom being the kind of display we saw from Mr Kavanagh against Brighton.

    You always say that fans of other clubs say referees are biased against their clubs – of course they are going say that, because they see the same incompetence, the same bland statement, the same closing of ranks and the same disdain for the fans.

    Your article does nothing to address these points.

    1. ken1945, you appear to have a very good idea here. I agree that refs should explain to the public any decisions which need to be explained (as presented by the press attempting to represent the people). This would go a long way toward fans being much more accepting of decisions which appear to be questionable on the surface if the refs were willing to express their decision making process.

      Then, they could be disciplined or be praised/rewarded based on how comprehensively they identified and how well they used what they felt were the relevant facts of the matter at hand. It would seem to be the only way true accountability can be the result.

      1. o.k. maybe not more accepting but less likely to assume agendas, conspiracies, payoffs, etc. especially if the refs were held accountable when appropriate based on what they communicated.

    2. Putting yourself in their shoes, does that really seem fair? Referees can have bad games, so to force them to have to go and face the music in front of cameras, just seems harsh. Some situations would force them to either admit wrong, leading to backlash from fans, or lie, leading to backlash from fans – they do have to face the music internally, and at least then it’s contained, they’re not forced into difficult situations publicly, just like any other job. The pgmol has made an effort to provide that transparency more collectively, which makes sense. They do point out clear mistakes, but they also try to protect their referees to a reasonable extent – as they should (otherwise, who’d want to work for them).
      Managers and players have to speak to the media for entertainment (TV contracts) reasons, and they’re very well paid, and received training to do so. You could provide that kind of training to referees, but given their relatively low status in the game, it will surely just make them even bigger targets, and for what? Do you really think it will stop people coming up with conspiracy theories? Either their training will make the responses appear artificial to people, or they’ll inevitably misspeak occasionally, both of which will fuel the conspiracy beliefs.
      “the same bland statement, the same closing of ranks and the same disdain for the fans.”
      I don’t know about disdain for fans, but do you not think there is disdain towards referees? I think that might be why the statements are bland and why they close ranks, to a large extent – they want to take the emotion out of it, because it’s the emotion that leads to negative consequences for their refs.
      Maybe just asking the pgmol to do a better job of communicating these things would be more appropriate? I’m not sure how though, thh

    3. You miss the point Ken then …
      If there is a conspiracy or an agenda Arsenal wouldnt get awarded penalties or opportunities or opponents get red cards

      We are saying reffs and VAR are corrupt against Arsenal
      So in theory they would never disallowed Cherries goal or give our goal against Everton
      How can there be a conspiracy against us but then such 50-50 calls go in our favour

      I have also given examples of why we may have lost at Newcastle and Villa
      But not beating Fulham
      Loseing to West Ham
      Villa win at the Emirates
      Drawing at the Ethiad
      Drawing at the bridge and Anfield
      That’s for you to name an obvious decision that went our way mate

      1. I don’t think I have missed the point Dan.
        You have given examples when the referee has, in your opinion, made mistakes that favoured The Arsenal.
        I haven’t disputed any of those examples, except to say, quite rightly, that it’s your opinion.
        What I’ve said is that fans of every club see the same mistakes, the same inconsistencies, the same bland explanations, the same cover ups and the same closing of ranks as we do.
        I cannot think of any organisation that, when it has policed itself and not allowed any other form of checks, hasn’t been found to be corrupt.

        You might be 100% correct in your opinions regarding the matches in your article, but we’ll never know, because the PGMOL will not discuss it.

        That’s my point and until we can find a way to make referees accountable and open to their decisions, there will always be unanswered questions… questions that, as Fire put it, will breed suspicion and allege another form of corruption – individual corruption.

  5. I’ve got two points.

    First I think it’s disingenuous to portray those fans who has had enough of the incompetence and bias of the PGMOL refs as somebody who thinks there are big conspiracy against Arsenal. Let me be clear there is not a conspiracy against Arsenal. But in my honest opinion there are plenty of PGMOL refs who are biased against Arsenal and I think it can be proven if somebody is willing to undertake the pretty big task of making a real analyses. Which brings me two my second point. What you have done is trying to extrapolate meaning from a bunch anecdotes and it should in no way be called an analyses.

    If you want to do real analyses to prove or disprove if there is a bias from certain refs you could start by analyse the following:
    • How many times did each team commit a foul with a mandatory yellow or red card (e.g kick a ball away at a free kick, waving an imaginary, shirt pulling, kick or hitting an opponent while the ball is not in play and professional foul as a last defender)?
    ◦ How many times did that foul lead to a red or a yellow card?
    • How many times did a team take more than 23 seconds to take a throw in?
    ◦ How many times did the time wasting lead to a yellow card?
    • How many times did a team (and player already on a yellow card) take more than 23 seconds to take a throw in?
    ◦ How many times did the time wasting lead to a second yellow card?
    • How many times did a team take more than 30 seconds to take a goal kick, free kick, corner kick or substitution?
    ◦ How many times did the time wasting lead to a yellow card?

    Now that would be an analyses with more or less objectively data points.
    I would be completely stunned if Arsenal is not one of the teams who is relatively most severely punished by the PGMOL refs.

      1. Again Dan (sorry but I’ve just come back to this article) it’s your opinion that Pires dived. I assume you also agree Rooney dived as well?
        But if both referees had come out and said “the reason I thought Pires didn’t dive, or Rooney didn’t dive was…. we, as fans (of all clubs) would at least be given the opportunity to understand why and how he got to that decision.
        In fact, he might enlighten those of us who think we know the rules that we actually don’t!!

      2. Yes MSS we do exist. I believe even though there is no conspiracy against Arsenal per se, there has always been a conspiracy to win Manchester clubs titles. It just happens Arsenal gets in the way a lot and thus all these grievances against the refs over the years.

      3. Fair enough. I didn’t think it was clear from your post especially considering Arsenal have just fallen victim to an unbelievably biased ref performance.
        Let’s try to review the Chris Kavanaghs performance:
        1. The good decisions:
        1. The penalty that wasn’t given. I would have been livid had that been called against Arsenal so that was a good decision. Way too often those situations have been called a penalty.
        2. David Raya yellow card
        2. The dubious decisions but but open to interpretations:
        1. That tackle on Ødegaard. Could have been a red card if he was harsh since the tackle was knee high but more often than not it’s only seen as a yellow card offence. Chris Kavanagh didn’t give a card at all – In my opinion a baffling decision. You could call that decision bias against Arsenal if you like but it’s hard prove since the decision is open to interpretion.
        3. The mandatory yellow and red card decisions:
        1. Joao Pedro escapes a yellow card a totally baffling decision and shows a clear bias against Arsenal. Before anybody starts talking about that Arsenal could just get a new ball and restart play quickly anyway let me remind you of the pretty clear rule about only one ball on the field at any time.
        2. Rice gets a second yellow card. A correct decision if you only look at that one part of the whole situation where Rice kicks the ball. Biased against Arsenal (see reasoning below).
        3. Estupiñán escapes a yellow card picking up the ball and holding it for 3 seconds thereby hindering any chance for a quick restart. A totally baffling decision and shows a clear bias against Arsenal – Especially considering the Rice second yellow.
        4. Welbeck escapes a yellow card agitating for a second yellow card to Rice. A totally baffling decision and shows a clear bias against Arsenal.
        5. Veltman kicking the ball at Rice – A clear yellow card violation if he doesn’t take the free kick at that point. A totally baffling decision and shows a clear bias against Arsenal since that yellow card offence directly leads to the Rice yellow card.
        6. Veltman kicking Rice while the ball isn’t in play. A clear red card violation as long as he didn’t take the free kick when he kicked the ball at Rice. A totally baffling decision and shows a clear bias against Arsenal.
        4. Conclusion on the Rice/Veltman situation
        1. As point 2, 4, 5 and 6 above all relates to this situation and all of Chris Kavanaghs decisions clearly are biased against Arsenal.
        1. It is either a yellow card for Veltman or a free kick taken. The rules are clear on that point but somehow Chris Kavanagh didn’t follow the rules as written and thereby cheated Arsenal.
        2. Rice offences is directly related to the offence committed by Veltman against Rice and thereby a technically incorrect decision. So because Chris Kavanagh cheated Arsenal to begin with he’s ending up punishing Arsenal by all of a sudden need to follow the rules as written in order to punish Arsenal.
        3. Chris Kavanagh then inexplicably once again chooses to ignore the rules as written by not giving Veltman a mandatory red card. Thereby once again cheating Arsenal by not following the rules as written.
        4. Lastly Chris Kavanagh chooses to not issuing a yellow card to Welbeck despite the vary clear agitating for a yellow card to Rice. Chris Kavanagh once again chooses to not adhere to the rules in order to avoid punishing Arsenals opponents
        5. Conclusion:
        1. Chris Kavanagh at least in this game used two different standards in applying the rules as written. The one time an Arsenal player committed a mandatory offence Chris Kavanagh issued a mandatory yellow card even though the only reason for the offence was his own incompetence or more likely bias. The 5 times (at least) a Brighton player committed an offence with a mandatory card Chris Kavanagh somehow applied a different standard where mandatory cards wasn’t issued.
        2. Chris Kavanagh has clearly shown that he’s biased against Arsenal to the point where he isn’t able to look past his biases and make impartial decisions in games involving Arsenal.

  6. Davi, to answer your question about is it fair to ask referees to explain decisions – why not?
    These are professionals, who are earning excellent salaries, along with the fringe benefits that go with the job.
    Managers and players are “forced” to explain things and then suffer the consequences as MA did, after the Newcastle game last season.
    Why would they have to admit they were right or wrong?
    They made what they saw as the right decision and should be able to explain how they came to that decision.
    Very rarely do we see a individual referee admit he got it wrong, rather the PGMOL come out and say that is the case.
    I also don’t agree with you that they have a low status – without them we wouldn’t have a game would we?
    For an average pay of £80k,there will be plenty of excellent referees from the lower leagues around the whole of the country who would jump at the chance in my opinion.
    For what purpose you ask. I think that’s easy to answer – so that we all understand the rules through the eyes of the referee.
    I’m not sure why you think they need to be trained in order to give an explanation, after all, they themselves made the decision.
    Disdain for the referees? Of course there is and one has only to review Mr Kavanagh’s performance to understand why. He was inconsistent throughout the game and his, seemingly, ability to not see incidents that 60,000 odd fans at the game, along with pundits who discussed it at the time and afterwards could, was unbelievable.
    But that’s my point – maybe he was absolutely correct and he needs to educate the minions… what better way to do it than in front of the media?
    Regarding the bland statements, well, it doesn’t take the emotion out of the situation, as we’re still discussing their decisions after every fixture it seems.
    What consequences are you referring to with regards to the referees? There are no consequences really are there? A one match ban when the PGMOL admit to an error – a ban that still sees them officiating in the VAR studio in some cases!!
    Your final point about better communication seems not to worry the PGMOL, as one can tell from their explanation regarding Rice’s second yellow. Until we see more openness and a willingness to engage with every other part of this game of ours, I can’t see it changing.

    I note that you agree (?) with me on the appointment of referees for games and where they live.
    Perhaps that’s an area that the PGMOL could/should address, especially if more training is needed down south!!

    1. “What consequences are you referring to with regards to the referees? There are no consequences really are there? A one match ban when the PGMOL admit to an error – a ban that still sees them officiating in the VAR studio in some cases!!”
      I meant the consequences that come with fame – 80k pa is not really enough to insulate them in the way a player or manager could be, especially considering they are generally going to be less popular than players and managers with the public.

      “I note that you agree (?) with me on the appointment of referees for games and where they live.”
      I don’t particularly agree with that. It’s a step too far to assume refs would be more in favour of a team because of where they live, were born or grew up. I wonder if it could be argued discriminatory tbh.

      “Your final point about better communication seems not to worry the PGMOL, as one can tell from their explanation regarding Rice’s second yellow. Until we see more openness and a willingness to engage with every other part of this game of ours, I can’t see it changing.”
      But it has been changing. The televised show where pgmol go through specific incidents has only been going for a year – I’m sure even they’d say there’s room for improvement.

      1. A referee and “fame” – I didn’t realize the two went together quite frankly.
        At least they shouldn’t go together, as the very best referees are the ones that get on with the job and aren’t noticed, such as Pierluigi Collins.

        Where referees come from and why the PL have none from the South of England is a concern – there are two explanations for this :
        1. It’s a deliberate policy.
        2. The referees from the South of England are not up to scratch and need training.

        Whether assigning a referee from Manchester to oversee a clear PL rival to Manchester City or Manchester United can be seen as a smart move, the fact that the media and fans have picked up on the fact and left the PGMOL to further criticism.
        This could have been avoided with a bit of forward thinking.
        By the way, as an ex referee, I can vouch for the fact that staying impartial is very difficult.

        Final point Davi – have you watched the show with Michael Owen and Howard Webb?
        Has Mr Webb ever been challenged when he answers softball questions?
        I find it leaves more questions than answers and why not have a panel consisting of a player, fan and media pundit to ask Mr Webb questions, so that we get the three different aspects put forward as legit questions?

        1. “A referee and “fame” – I didn’t realize the two went together quite frankly.
          At least they shouldn’t go together, as the very best referees are the ones that get on with the job and aren’t noticed, such as Pierluigi Collins.”
          But if they go in front of cameras after every game, then their profiles will be raised, and they’ll be far more exposed to the negative aspects of fame. Nothing to do with what they do on the pitch.

          It might be difficult for some people to be impartial, but location is far from the only thing that can influence someone. There are diehard fans of different clubs all over the world, so I don’t think it’s right to be so rigid about where referees originate. What if someone was born and raised in the north but lived in the south for 10-20 years?

          I’ve seen bits but haven’t watched in full so won’t comment except to say I’m sure they can make it better and perhaps your suggestion would make sense.

    2. I don’t know if there’s a direct correlation between where the refs are born, living their formative years or currently living. However I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some kind of correlation between those refs who have spent a lot of time with friends who are supporters of e.g. Man Utd or other northern teams. Those fans had a tendency to sing about how Arsenal was always cheating. It would be very human if some of those refs have an unconscious bias against Arsenal as they have “learned” that Arsenal is always cheating. It could explain why e.g. there wasn’t called a foul against Gabriel at the Newcastle match. The VAR team clearly sees the two hands in the back but are talking about how Gabriel going down to easy or in other words are trying to cheat. I honestly can’t remember any other instances where the VAR team has spotted a foul while reviewing a goal/penalty/red card but didn’t call the ref to the monitor because the fouled player went down to easy.

      1. I agree it’s possible/likely to be correlations as you suggest, but we’re not talking about generalities – these are supposed to be the best refs in the country, so you’d think they’d be aware of the potential for biases. I suppose it would make sense to try to track these things (I mean professionally – not the kind of job done by many fans who have their own biases to contend with), if for no other reason, to try to help refs who do have a bias.
        One thing that’s not often mentioned is the potential for over-compensating. I imagine most people who go into this profession genuinely want to be fair, and if they’re aware of a possible bias in their psyche, might be more prone to overcompensating and end up favouring the side they are biased against, out of a genuine desire to be fair – it’s complex.
        There’s also the crowds in the stadiums, which have long been thought to affect referees in football and other sports. Very difficult to do anything about that.

  7. There’s no conspiracy it’s just that there are a few refs from time that show some bias against us. I mean watching all these players at the weekend slowing down quick frees without a booking shows that that ref is slightly skewed against us. I don’t think you can argue against it I also believe some of the mainstream media is against us the way they pick on Arteta. But yeah obviously there’s no conspiracy you make it sound like we think they all meet up and come up with ways to screw us This is why I advocate for hiring the best foreign refs because I do believe some of these refs have a bias that they can’t put to one side It’s not just our club that feels this way

  8. There is no ‘agenda’ against Arsenal by refs. There are some refs that clearly don’t like Arsenal, and Arsenal fans dread seeing that refs name on the match sheet, but a ‘conspiracy’. Sorry, no. Its well known the football establishment don’t like Arsenal. Its well known they love it when we lose, and hate it when we do well. We know, because several famous figures in Arsenals past, and several football writers have highlighted that fact. However, that’s a World away from ‘influencing’ refs against us.

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