Arsenal has had a tremendous start to the 2023-24 season, and they are still unbeaten after seven league games. Unfortunately, this does not place them at the top of the league, but with 17 points — one point behind league leaders — they are in a favourable position to pursue league glory.
Last season, one factor that allowed them to maintain the title charge till the end of the season was their defensive strength. It was incredible to concede only 29 goals in the 2023-24 Premier League campaign (which was the fewest).
Entering this season, I imagine the aim was to either maintain or enhance their defensive performance. One could argue that they are on track to meet that objective. They have only conceded six goals thus far; they are the second-best team, trailing only Liverpool, who has conceded two goals.
While there is hope Arsenal can tighten up and avoid allowing more, an important statistic that should concern Gooners has fallen. According to fbRef, the Gunners have suddenly become one of the league’s worst teams in terms of shots conceded.
According to the numbers, only four other teams have conceded more shots than Arsenal. The North Londoners have conceded 14.71 shots on goal per 90 minutes, with 4.43 of these attempts (ranked 10th in the league) on target. Gunners are lucky their opponents aren’t precise, or they’d concede more. However, they can’t keep conceding as many shots, which makes it simpler for them to concede.
With Manchester City’s biggest rivals averaging 7.86 shots per 90 minutes, 3.00 of which are on target, and Liverpool averaging 9.14 shots, 3.43 of which are on target, it is evident that Arsenal must improve defensively and limit their opponents’ efforts. With their midfield and defensive capabilities, they can’t be as open as they are.
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This is where I think xG is valuable because it accounts for the quality of the chances created and conceded – we might have conceded a lot of shots with a low chance of being goals, whereas another team might have conceded fewer shots, and if those had a higher chance of being a goal, which team has the better defence?
In any case, I think our defensive numbers are skewed slightly because of the quality of the opposition we’ve faced so far, and our injury and red card issues. Too early to know if that’s the case, or if we really do have a weaker defence than last season.
I do feel the team has been a bit more open at the back this season as we’ve allowed Timber and Calafiori to push up the pitch in attack. But I think those numbers are skewed a bit because of the time spent playing with 10 men in two games.
And as Davi mentioned above, the xG would be a more telling stat. While there have definitely been a few good chances from within Arsenal’s box, I feel like a lot of shots have been taken from 30 yards out and have been half chances because teams haven’t been able to break down the backline with the team drops into defense.