Arsenal has emerged as one of the most in-form clubs in Europe this year, and the statistics behind their stunning run have been unveiled.
Under Mikel Arteta’s guidance, Arsenal secured a resounding 5-0 victory against Burnley, marking another instance where they scored at least five goals in consecutive games. This second half of the season stands in stark contrast to the previous campaign, where they experienced a loss of momentum at this stage.
The impressive win against Burnley has propelled Arsenal to score an astounding 21 times in their last five matches. This goal-scoring spree is noteworthy for a team that faced struggles in front of the net in preceding seasons.
Journalist James Benge, closely monitoring Arsenal’s remarkable form tweeted after the Burnley victory:
“In their last five games, Arsenal have given up shots worth 1.7 expected goals.
“The average xG allowed per game in the Premier League this season is 1.6.
“No team has had shots worth more than 0.5 xG in a league game against Arsenal in 2024.
“Oh and Arsenal have scored 21 too.”
Just Arsenal Opinion
We are at our clinical best at the moment and believe this could be our season.
There are many more games to play before this campaign ends, and we have to stay focused and humble, but it is clear that we are a team in great form now.
XG against then is apparently 1.7 and actual goals against(in those five matches) only marginally worse at 2.
So forgive my lack of surprise, but surely that is about what any clued up Gooner ought to EXPECT. Is it not?
More broadly though, the whole concept of expected whether for or against is simply yet another almsot pointless stat!
Simply using out eyes and brains would give a far better and MORE ACCURATE idea of what is happening in ANY game
When we score five or six but our expected goals for is then statedas being 3 or very SLIGHTLY over, the whole relevance of XG must be called into question.
To my mind it is just another TV and media led stat that adds nothing of worth to our understanding of ANY match at all. We can ALL SEE what is happening, so why bother with pointless XG’s!!
“When we score five or six but our expected goals for is then statedas being 3 or very SLIGHTLY over, the whole relevance of XG must be called into question.”
It just shows we’ve scored more than expected, i.e. our finishing has been very good or we’ve scored a couple of “worldies”. Goals from outside the box will tend to have a very low chance of going in, for example, so if one does go in, the scorer has just outperformed the xG for that shot. I do believe there’s something to the xG etc stats, but like all stats, sample size is a crucial element. If a player scores from the halfway line in one game, it can throw everything for quite a while, until things eventually even themselves out, for example.
These stats are intended to describe reality, so they should somewhat match up against what you’re watching – in this case, it seems to match up well as teams have struggled to make any chances against us. I can’t watch every game, certainly not every other team’s games, so they are useful if you wanted to make a comparison.
Are those XG stats EVER published then BEFORE a game is played?
If that IS the case, then I could at least see some point. But we only ever SEE THEM after a game is over and it is THEN that I see no point to them, as weand esp those involve din running tht team, meaning MA in particular, have already seen the game.
Genuine enquiry ,if you know the answer please?
Ah, yes, they analyse them throughout the season – you can see league tables of all the teams xG over the season and you can infer if their finishing abilities are exceptionally good, and lots of other things. Yes, you can see a team’s xG before a games starts
They are now tracking the xG during the course of games, but that number refers only to that game.
.Where can I see these XG before games please? I am grateful to you and genuinely had no idea they were available BEFORE games, til now.
Many thanks Davi.
I have to say though that given the often large distortion between given XG and actual goals scored / against, I still regard them as at best a vague guide only and not of REAL USE!
There is a site called understat . com that has a league table with the xG and xGA (against) and xPoints.
I suppose the method they use to derive the values are a bit mysterious (I believe it’s to do with the positions from which shots are taken, but may also incorporate the positions of the players on the pitch), but I do think they tend to match up well with reality, if you consider when a bad miss has happened, or a long range goal has been scored.
I think the real idea is to compare the differences between actual goals scored to the expected in order to draw conclusions about the qualities of the team and the goalkeeper. Another example would be if a team has 20 shots, but an xG of 0.5, it would indicate they aren’t producing opportunities of high quality, which may show a problem with the team, or the opposition might be defending extremely well. That sort of thing.
Of the past 5 games, only forest away and Liverpool at home were real “tricky” fixtures (understatement for the Liverpool game of course), but the xG stats do show how much we’ve strangled and/or nullified all of these teams. We dominated the games and have shown high levels of concentration.
The 5 or 6 nil games were ones we’d expect to win anyway, but often these games can turn around if you’re not completely on it, because those struggling sides can see it as a free hit and play without pressure, in a sense, especially if they get an early goal or something, so the concentration and ruthlessness from our players has been impressive.
DAVI while agreeing with all you write, we need now to be at a regular STANDARD where teams such as Forest are not regarded as being “tricky” fixtures, at all.
This is not to say that we ought not to take ALL teams seriously, as I AM SURE WE DO.
But an inate self belief, NOT arrogance though, EVER, is what such as City have long had Our Invincibles too had that vital quality of self belief.
It is a key part of being a GREAT, rather than a merely very good team.
Completely agree, Jon. I hope this is evidence of a new normal for the rest of the season and beyond, but we’ll see. It’s a very tough league, and plenty of teams will show more fight but if we keep playing like this, we’ll have more than enough to put them to the sword. It’s about maintaining this standard, as you say.